insurance

Hurricane Zeta: Impact Report

Hurricane Zeta: Impact Report 1043 710 adapt ready

Hurricane Zeta, a Category 2 storm, made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana on Wednesday October 29th causing massive power outages across the Gulf Coast leaving 556,000 customers in Louisiana without power. As of this update, the storm is currently in Mississippi with max windspeeds of 176 km/h and storm surge levels up to 6ft, posing a major threat to the oil & gas assets, both offshore and onshore.

Zeta is a record 9th storm to hit the Gulf Coast this year: a devastating blow to a region already battered by Hurricane Laura (the fifth strongest hurricane on record in the US) in late August, Hurricane Sally (Category 3) in September and Hurricane Delta (Category 4) this month, causing extensive property damage and loss of life.

This continues the pattern of an increasing number of storms in the Atlantic season. In 2018 there were 15 named storms of which 8 became hurricanes and 2 were major events (Cat 3 and above). In 2019 there were 18 named storms, of which 6 became hurricanes and 3 were major events. This season we now have 27 named storms, a staggering 12 hurricanes and 4 major events making it the heaviest storm season for some time (the last time we had more than 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic season was back in 2005).

As the heart of energy production in the US it is no surprise to see the main companies and industries expected to be affected by the red zone (area with the highest predicted windspeeds) of Hurricane Zeta:

Top 5 companies operating and leasing platforms:

1. Fieldwood Energy with 123 active platforms
2. Cox Operating LLC with 113 active platforms
3. Talos LLC with 74 active platforms
4. Arena Offshore with 53 active platforms
5. W&T Offshore with 41 active platforms

Top 5 companies with offshore wells in the red zone:

1. Fieldwood Energy – 354
2. Cox Operating – 293
3. Arena Offshore LP – 183
4. GOM Shelf – 86
5. Cantium LLC – 78

With the energy sector again taking the biggest hit due to the location of predicted landfall, you might have seen in the last two reports, that both Cox and Fieldwood Energy are expected to be the most effected. This is because of the sheer number of wells and platforms they have in this region. As the two largest platform and well operators in the affected zones they will always feature heavily in such reports as Fieldwood Energy operates 23% and Cox Operating LLC 21% of all active platforms in the region.

Top 5 companies with Onshore Wells

  1. Hilcorp Energy Company – 202
  2. FDL Operating, LLC – 139
  3. Texas Petroleum Investment Co. – 122
  4. Denbury Onshore, LLC – 88
  5. S2 Energy Operating LLC – 85

Due to the nature of risk assessment and underwriting being driven by who the lease holders of properties are, it is important to address the current leaseholders of potentially affected assets.

CompanyLeases
Fieldwood49
W&T23
Talos22
Arena Energy21
EPL Oil & Gas12
Leaseholders predicted to be most at risk of damage

Manufacturing facilities in Ship Building, Fabricated Metal Products, Chemicals & Petrochemicals and Mining Support are in the regions of potential storm surge flooding of up to 4ft above the ground. These businesses could well be under threat from some physical damage, but we do not think there will be significant damage or losses to these and their connected industries.

If you would like more information as to your specific portfolio requirements in the affected area or just want to be kept up to date with real time hurricane impacts this season, then please contact riskmonitor@adaptready.com.

About Adapt Ready:

Adapt Ready’s ground-breaking risk intelligence platform delivers new data insights and fills in key gaps with external data, enabling our customers to better manage operational and financial risks, and to enhance their growth and profitability. With our platform, organizations can gain insights from external data tailored to specific situations before, during and after a crisis:

  • Before: Plan for risks by uncovering as many hidden risks as possible
  • During: Mitigate the impact – as events unfold, new data emerges and can inform decisions to reduce the event’s impact
  • After: Adapt to new conditions and refine future business direction

Hurricane Delta: Impact Report

Hurricane Delta: Impact Report 800 440 adapt ready

Hurricane Sally: Impact Report

Hurricane Sally: Impact Report 1785 1169 adapt ready

The new interactive infographic above allows Insurers and reinsurers to see their exposures as hurricane Sally’s predicted path evolved. Then, the actual path as Sally made landfall on the 16th September.

This infographic shows how as Louisiana was being predicted to face the brunt of the storm having the relevant data at the right time to assess the industries and companies allows insurers and reinsurers to prepare for reserving on their portfolios and risks where necessary.

By simply moving the slider in the infographic, you can see how each projected path could have impacted Louisiana’s wells and companies in real time up until hurricane Sally made landfall when the real impact became known (path 4)

This infographic is focused on the Louisiana area just to show the potential of this style of risk analysis; however, we are also covering the impact upon Alabama’s onshore wells and companies in Florida now that landfall has been made and initial data is showing the following:

Alabama

  • BASF
  • Coastal Oil & Gas Corporation
  • ExxonMobil Production Company
  • Goodrich Aerostructures
  • Guyoungtech USA, Inc. (a tier 1 supplier to Hyundai, Kia and other automotive companies)

Florida

  • Air Products & Chemicals
  • Exxon Mobil Chemical Company

If you would like more detailed info on the impact to your specific risk or portfolio, or would just like to know how often these wells or other companies have previously been damaged by major events specific to your risks then please get in touch with our representatives through the links at the bottom of the site.

Tracking Hurricane Sally

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Over 14 hours ago, Tropical Storm Sally turned into Hurricane Sally and changed its course as it made progress towards Louisiana. It is now expected to turn and make its way to the Mississippi-Alabama state line.

The hurricane is likely to further impact the battered oil & gas industry with over 170 offshore platforms and 1,000 offshore wells in the path of the hurricane. Over 500 manufacturing facilities in Mississippi could also bear the brunt of the hurricane and its predicted life-threatening storm surge.

The Chemicals manufacturing industry could see significant impact from Hurricane Sally.

The following is a small subset of the companies that could experience property damage and business interruption.

Offshore Wells
Fieldwood Energy368
Cantium LLC220
Cox Operating LLC92
Onshore Oil Wells
Texas Petroleum Investment Company100
Cox Operating LLC26
Lobo Operating Inc11
Onshore Gas Wells
Texas Petroleum Investment Company10
Lobo Operating Inc9
Fieldwood and Cox had the most exposure during Hurricane Laura as well.

Typhoons Haishen and Maysak: Impact on South Korea’s Export Industry

Typhoons Haishen and Maysak: Impact on South Korea’s Export Industry 800 2000 Diana Peterson

A double whammy of storms hit Japan and South Korea recently: Typhoons Maysak and Haishen made landfall within a day of each other.

As a result of these storms, South Korea faced a threat to its $110bn+ of semiconductor and automotive export industries according to the latest real-time information gathered by Adapt Ready’s Risk Intelligence Platform. Our initial newsletter tracked Haishen as making landfall as a Category 4-equivalent hurricane and the infographic was prepared with those paths; by the time it reached South Korea, it had been downgraded to Category 2 so the impacts to the identified companies may not be as severe. Nevertheless, the infographic also highlights the accumulation of risk among these industries.

The two main impacted industries are the $23.1bn Automotive parts exports and the more concerning $94bn semiconductor exports industry which currently ranks as South Korea’s largest export industry. Despite the updated path of Typhoon Haishen, they have impacted operational capacity on some of South Korea’s major corporations; and as per our analysis, the companies most exposed to losses right now are Samsung, Amkor, Hyundai, Ford and General Motors, by virtue of their heavy supply chain reliance on South Korea

In the attached infographic you can clearly see how Maysak’s path ran right through the heart of the semiconductor and auto industries in South Korea. Most insurers are able to know the property damage to direct sites of their customers but the impact on lines such as business interruption within the manufacturing sector is impossible to capture without the right tools to assess interconnected risks. They are unable to know or even estimate their BI/CBI exposure, which is paramount during these times. Some of the interesting insights from our risk intelligence platform include:

  • 472 semiconductor companies and 426 automotive final assembly/parts supplier companies were in Maysak’s high impact zone (min wind speeds ~90 Km/h and max wind speeds ~176 Km/h)
    • The same numbers increased to 653 semiconductor and 528 automotive companies when the focus is on high impact zones of cyclone Haishen.
  • Multiple common tier-1 suppliers were in the impact zones of both the cyclones, potentially leading to supply chain issues to bigger companies like Estra Automotive, General Motors, Hyundai, Samsung and Ford.
  • There could be a “double edged” impact to supply chains of raw materials and finished goods, both in automotive and semiconductor industries, causing large exposures.

If you would like more details as to impacts to your specific portfolio in that area or just want to be kept up to date with the real-time impact of the cyclones then please reach out using the details below.

Hurricane Laura: Impact on the Energy sector

Hurricane Laura: Impact on the Energy sector 500 516 adapt ready

The latest real time information is now available for tropical storm Laura, but can this come to the aid of the ailing energy market?

As storm Laura struck the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 storm after undergoing a massive intensification in strength in just 24 hours, the insurance industry, as always in these times, is inundated with predictions of losses and warnings from the likes of AM Best and Moody’s of added stress to the balance sheets of their rated insurance companies, already weakened by Covid-19.

With the availability of new technology and powerful analytics tools now though, there is a way for the industry to react with better, more informed decision making.

Let’s take the ever-suffering Energy market, which over the last few years has been hardening due to an increase in losses and a decrease in premiums, so the use of cutting-edge technology is already pivotal in reducing expense ratios – but can that technology help in real time?

Having the right information at the earliest possible time will massively help companies with their reserving, so what information can we gather right now from this data?

Port Arthur, Texas is home to the largest oil refinery in the US. Over 330 offshore drilling platforms are right in the path of Laura’s peak winds, but not all rigs and refineries are equal. Older platforms (pre-2006) generally have a lower profile and therefore more likely to be affected by the predicted storm swells of over 20 feet and understanding how many of these are in insurers’ portfolios is the first step of the analysis.

  • Currently there are 235 older (pre-2006) platforms in the storm affected area.
  • The platforms are owned or operated by a handful of companies that have large exposures, including Fieldwood Energy LLC, Cox Operating LLC and Arena Offshore LP.
  • It is also worth noting from the data that Fieldwood Energy alone owns or operates 238 fixed offshore platforms and thus has the largest exposure.

Modern, floating platforms are designed to be far more resilient to storm surges but any of the above fixed platforms caught in the storm would add more pressure to their owners.

Company Platform Count
Fieldwood Energy LLC238
Cox Operating, LLC102
Arena Offshore, LP39
Talos19
Sanare Energy Partners17
Top 5 Risk Exposures

These companies have properties at a greater risk of losses and knowing this allows insurers the opportunity for better reserving and the ability to do that faster also gives a greater understanding of potential losses.

One of the areas that Real time data can be truly beneficial in times like this is in the potential to have preventative action, which leads to faster processing of claims and not to mention identifying the business interruption impact.

Looking at the infographic we can also see the impact to downstream energy production.  With production already down 84% in the last two days this is going to put pressure on chemicals, machinery, plastics and rubber manufacturing who may have shortage issues.    

The last similar storm that hit this region was Hurricane Rita in 2005, which resulted in $6.4 billion in insured losses

A final point on how underwriting can modernize with this type of data. Traditionally, energy companies have insured their risk exposures on an individual basis, with reliance placed on historical losses to assess risk, usually by considering each class of insurance in isolation. 

Premium, market capacity, deductible and insurable limit are the main drivers, with only limited analytical support undertaken to assess placement outcome and pricing or the insurer’s overall portfolio.

This single view of risk doesn’t take into account the true nature of risk, which is far more complex and includes dependencies within and between risk exposures that can now be better understood by combining data with modern analytical capabilities. Is it not time that underwriting used this available data, gained a complete understanding of the interconnected risks in a portfolio and helped to reduce both exposures and costs in the long term over the traditional and more myopic system?

If any companies on this list are in your portfolio, then we have detailed information that may help and are more than happy to share it; so please do not hesitate to get in touch.

Midland Michigan Flood Impact Map

Catastrophic Flooding in Michigan

Catastrophic Flooding in Michigan 1051 561 adapt ready

With the breaching of both Edenville and Sanford dams in Midland Michigan, thousands of people are under evacuation orders. The impacted region is also home to hundreds of small businesses ranging from restaurants and grocers to dentists and law firms.

One of the bigger concerns is a Dow Chemicals plant that manufactures plastics and resins, where floodwaters have already reached the plant’s outer boundaries per the New York Times. For a detailed analysis of the potential business interruption and contingent business interruption losses, schedule a demo today.

Technology Helping Source COVID-19 Supplies

Technology Helping Source COVID-19 Supplies 1200 800 adapt ready

As the Coronavirus pandemic continues to spread globally, personal protective equipment and critical care items are in short supply. PPE and healthcare accessories and devices such as ventilators are in great demand to treat patients with COVID-19 and contain the spread of the coronavirus. 

COVID-19 has caused severe disruptions to global supply chains, and one of the industries most affected is healthcare. With more than 3.6 million confirmed cases and at least 254,586 deaths worldwide as of May 5 and growing, according to the World Health Organization, the coronavirus pandemic is the most significant public health emergency in many years.

As an early stage startup that has mastered optimizing public and proprietary data to provide risk intelligence, we have traditionally been releasing reports of business impacts/supply chain disruptions during every major event. While analyzing the business impacts of COVID-19 on pharmaceutical industry, we realized the disconnect between the supply and demand of sourcing PPE & CCE around the world.

So, we decided to use the external data capturing capabilities of our platform, powered by Big Data/AI, to address this very pressing need and built an application that lists manufacturers and retailers that provide all the necessary equipment identified by the WHO as necessary for battling COVID-19. The app is free to use for governments, states, cities, hospitals and private distributors, making it extremely easy to locate contact information and reach out to manufacturers/retailers at their fingertips.

With COVID-19 cases still on the rise, particularly in the United States (1.1 million+ cases and over 70,000 deaths as of May 5), PPE, CCE and healthcare accessories and devices are needed more than ever before.

  • With little help from the federal government, states are looking to the open market, where they are met with demand pricing and forced to bid against each other.
  • The open market can also be murky, subject to scams and counterfeit products. To prevent this from occurring we have ensured that they are trusted and approved by US and EU regulators (all manufacturers are FDA-approved).
  • Adapt Ready bridges this disconnect between supply and demand of sourcing PPE/CCE by breaking through the noise of a complicated and difficult market to put consumers and organizations directly in touch with manufacturers and retailers to combat soaring prices and empower state/local governments, NGOs, hospitals and others in the healthcare ecosystem to collaborate and take the buying process into their own hands.

This is an app for social good and free to use. While originally designed for Apple iOS and Google Android platforms, due to the pandemic, they are only launching apps from government organizations, NGOs and healthcare institutions. For now, we have made it publicly available at https://covid19.adaptready.com. We are seeking partnerships with government/NGOs and healthcare organizations to launch the app – and welcome you to reach out for more information. Please share this with your network and help spread the word, so we can collectively have an impact on fighting COVID-19.

About Adapt Ready:

Adapt Ready’s ground-breaking risk intelligence platform delivers new data insights and fills in key gaps with external data, enabling our customers to better manage operational and financial risks, and to enhance their growth and profitability. With our platform, organizations can gain insights from external data tailored to specific situations before, during and after a crisis:

  • Before: Plan for risks by uncovering as many hidden risks as possible
  • During: Mitigate the impact – as events unfold, new data emerges and can inform decisions to reduce the event’s impact
  • After: Adapt to new conditions and refine future business direction

COVID-19 Impact on the Pharmaceuticals Industry

COVID-19 Impact on the Pharmaceuticals Industry 1200 800 adapt ready

Coronavirus Business Impacts

Coronavirus Business Impacts 1200 800 adapt ready

Coronavirus COVID-19 is on everyone’s mind. Here’s a sliver of the global impact it can cause, from the shut down of several operations in China, Hubei in particular

Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma Closing in on Florida

Hurricane Irma Closing in on Florida 897 736 adapt ready

Hurricane IrmaAs Hurricane Irma barrels down on Florida, insurers are vulnerable to a myriad of exposures. As of this writing, all the major and minor ports serving the state have been shutdown.

The Tampa, FL port is a crucial gateway for fertilizers as it handles over 20% of the US exports, with its biggest customer, The Mosaic Company, being affected in particular – not just from the port closure, but due to the closure and potential impact on its phosphate production locations in the vicinity.

Mosaic serves customers in over 40 countries, and acknowledges that it conducts operations through a limited number of key production and distribution facilities. (Phosphates accounted for nearly 41% of the company’s revenues in 2016). The larger implications on agri-based businesses (including Campbell Soup, Kellogg, Tyson Foods and PepsiCo) remains to be seen.

Irma is also after orange juice: Bradenton, FL based Tropicana, is the world’s largest producer of branded juice, and one of the billion-dollar-plus subsidiaries of PepsiCo. The Tropicana plant is in the path of the hurricane, and its closure could severely impact production for days to come.

A quick rundown of industrial exposures at major ports follows:

Major PortIndustryPotentially Impacted Companies
TampaFertilizer, Agriculture, Food & BeverageMosaic Company; PepsiCo; Campbell Soup
JacksonvilleAuto industry (635,000 automobiles imported annually)Volkswagen; Porsche; Toyota
Port EvergladesIndustrial and heavy equipmentHurst
MiamiClothing, medical equipment and pharmaceuticals, metal products, and printingSteiner Atlantic; Noven Pharmaceuticals
West Palm BeachShips and boatsRybovich; Horizon Yacht; Bahama Boat Works

A more detailed connected risks report will be sent to our partners. If you wish to receive the report, please sign up with your name and contact details below.

Hurricane Irma’s Forecast Cone image courtesy of the National Hurricane Center.

Tianjin Port Explosion: 20 Months On

Tianjin Port Explosion: 20 Months On 640 426 adapt ready

About 20 months after the Tianjin Port explosions that left insurance companies with as high as ~$4bn in claims, the port stays abuzz with cargo activities, with Beijing-based companies expected to invest $23 billion in the city. In 2016, the port saw throughput volumes to the tune of 14.49m teu, a 2.9% year-on-year rise.

  • “Tianjin port will apply the brakes to coal transportation by trucks from the second half of 2017, to alleviate pollution caused by diesel-powered trucks and coal consumption”, the mayor said.
  • Environmental clean-up is complete, new facilities built to improve local surroundings
  • The Ministry of Environmental Protection have established an environmental monitoring station to scrutinize the port and surrounding areas 24 hours a day
  • For four months after the blast, the city had checked more than 2,000 enterprises that dealt with dangerous substances and chemicals

What are insurance companies doing?

Adopting InsurTech

“Insurance Technology” or the topic of technology-driven innovation in insurance is the focus for most insurance companies. Drones, robots, start-ups in this space, are contributing to its growth. Sensors built on ‘Internet of Things’ are being used on cargo to help companies rapidly understand the situation after catastrophic events (e.g.: the Tianjin explosion)

Applying Changes to Cargo Underwriting
  • Building newer disaster models and cargo models
  • Improved understanding of risk accumulations
  • Pricing for the unknowns

What do experts say?

All Eggs in One Basket

The Tianjin event highlighted how risks can be accumulated in a single location. A massive 285 of the Fortune Global 500 companies had facilities there. Following the event, insurers and reinsurers were exposed to claims from multiple lines of business, involving multiple policies across property, marine, motor vehicle and personal injury.

Data for annual turnover in terminals, average turnaround times and market share of an insurer etc., enables calculation of risk scenarios and to identify accumulations.

Know Thy Neighbor

If the underwriters in case of Tianjin had known about the presence of lethal chemicals in Ruihai International Logistics, they would have priced the risks very differently. It is essential for underwriters to understand and evaluate neighboring risks/risks in proximity.

BI from human error supersedes those from Nat Cats

Mr Damien Pang, Head of Short-Tail Claims at AGCS Asia, notes that increasing BI claims are more from human error or technical failure rather than from Nat CATs. He suggests companies to increase their supply chains’ resilience by mapping them, identifying critical suppliers and their locations, get back-up suppliers and increase stocks. “These “redundancies”, once considered “cost-blocks”, are now instead viewed as investments in reliability and safety” he adds.

Big Data and Analytics

To fully exploit the capabilities of Big Data and Analytics, quality data is needed. Industry experts had commented that effective data communication was lacking throughout the underwriting process for the Tianjin event.

An industry-wide transformation is happening in this area:

  • Consultancy firms launching newer and better cargo modelling tools.
  • Containers are being fitted with RFIDs to help identify locations.
  • Learning lessons from property businesses in Florida where risks come into the market with huge amounts of exposure information.

Big Data and smart analytics will help make marine data more accessible, thereby enabling better assessment of cargo risk accumulations and create greater scope for modelling. They can also be used to build a knowledge profile of an area or specific property, including proximity to Nat CAT risks.

References

http://www3.asiainsurancereview.com/News/View-NewsLetter-Article/id/35863/Type/eDaily/China-Insured-losses-from-Tianjin-Port-blasts-now-estimated-at-US-4-bln

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/tianjin-explosion-3-marine-insurance-related-markus-spielmann?articleId=8136159571149071310#comments-8136159571149071310&trk=sushi_topic_posts_guest

Why should I care about InsurTech?

http://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/lessons-from-the-tianjin-explosion-en.html?utm_content=39994145&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin

http://www3.asiainsurancereview.com/Magazine/ReadMagazineArticle?aid=37947

https://www.lloydslist.com/ll/sector/insurance/article522140.ece

Container ship by anaulin is licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0