Infographics

When the ground shakes: mapping the impact of the Taiwan earthquake

When the ground shakes: mapping the impact of the Taiwan earthquake 150 150 adapt ready

This week came the devastating news that Hualien City, on the east coast of the island of Taiwan, had been hit by a powerful, 7.4 magnitude earthquake. The quake toppled buildings, ripped apart roads and left at least ten dead and nearly one thousand injured (at the time of writing), and it was the largest to hit the island in twenty-five years.

Though a relatively small island by geography, Taiwan is a major hub for the importation and exportation of goods, with trade valued at $901bn in the year 2022.  Over 40% of this trade is accounted for by just three countries, China, the United States and Japan.

Some of the world’s largest companies rely on Taiwan for the manufacture and supply of their components and products including Apple, Cisco, Bose, Bosch, Caterpillar, BMW, Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Daimler.

Any major disaster to hit the island will inevitably cause some level of disruption to this busy supply chain. Risk and insurance managers worldwide need to carefully monitor the unfolding situation and consider how damage to the country’s buildings and infrastructure may negatively impact their own businesses, reviewing their business continuity plans to ensure they can mitigate as much of this disruption as possible.

Exposing vulnerabilities

Taiwan is one of the largest producers of semiconductor chips in the world, and though this week’s seismic activity occurred on the Eastern coast of the island, reports suggest that some of the country’s semiconductor giants located on the Western coast were forced to evacuate their staff from machinery plants, temporarily halting production across a number of sites.

In 2023, the top ten countries importing these semiconductor chips from Taiwan (by value) were: China, Malaysia, USA, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, Germany, Mexico and Singapore.

Though we don’t believe that this temporary cessation will have an immediate significant impact on the global production and supply of semiconductor chips, the event exposes the vulnerability of the manufacturing and export of these essential components. With such a large percentage of the world’s manufacture and supply of semiconductors concentrated in a small area, one known to be at high risk of seismic activity, we see a significant vulnerability that could threaten the production of mobile phones, laptops, tablets and other essential communication tools.

Possible disruption to energy supplies

We understand that the Ho-Ping port, serving the Ho-Ping coal plant, located on the East coast of Taiwan suspended operations at the time of the quake, but if the plant itself ceased operations or suffered any physical damage, energy supplies to the North of the county could be impacted.

The Changbin and Datan onshore wind farms are also located close to the epicentre of the quake, if they suffered physical damage to their buildings and equipment or disruption to their operations, energy supplies in the country could be further impacted.

When major disasters occur, we are reminded of just how interconnected our world is, highlighting vulnerabilities we may not even have considered.  In the case of Taiwan, the concentration of semiconductor manufacture and supply could prove costly for risk managers in the event of an earthquake, or volcano, not only if buildings themselves are damaged, but if the power plants fuelling them are impacted.

As the situation in Taiwan unfolds, we’ll be keeping an eye on global supply links and will be helping our customers to map the possible fall-out, ensuring they have a clear picture of the risk facing their operations, and identifying viable solutions/alternatives to mitigate their supply chain dependencies/weaknesses.

To better understand how the Adapt Ready platform can be used to quantify risk and plug the data gap in global risk exposure, contact us.

Hurricane Ida Slams Into the Energy Sector

Hurricane Ida Slams Into the Energy Sector 600 532 adapt ready

When Hurricane Ida became the fifth strongest hurricane ever to hit mainland US on the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina (with windspeeds reaching 150mph), it struck the energy sector first as always.

The effects were initially obvious with power outages across the entire city of New Orleans as the city’s power supplier, Entergy reported a city-wide loss of power to over 1 million people.

The potential issues only begin at the initial damage caused by the storm to the sector. Business Interruption is already becoming a factor and then the supply chain impacts will be felt as the storm subsides.

You can see from the infographic showing the impact of the storm as of today that 1,610 active offshore oil & gas wells were in the direct path and 549 offshore platforms, with Cox Operating LLC owning/operating 23% of these platforms and 28% of the wells!

Most affected companies:

  • Offshore Assets:
    • Cox Operating LLC: 125 active platforms and 451 active wells exposed to heavy winds
  • Onshore Assets:
    • Hilcorp Energy Company operating a quarter of all onshore wells that are in high-impact zone
  • Offshore & Onshore Assets Combination:
    • Whitney Oil & Gas LLC

As always, the age of the facilities is incredibly important because it was Hurricane Katrina itself in 2005 which altered the design of platforms — requiring increased height to protect them from major storm swells.

In this regard too, Cox Operating LLC leads the pack with 77 of its active platforms that were of fixed type, having been built before 2006 (pre-Katrina) and thus stand lower than the required height of 97 ft, in the path of peak wind speed.

In terms of refineries, we anticipate significant reduction in production capacities, both due to damages/electricity outages and the preemptive closures:

  • ~428 MMcfd natural gas refining capacity potentially at risk
  • 5M barrels petroleum refining capacity at risk
  • Dow Chemicals, Shell Chemicals, ExxonMobil are some of the well-known companies that will have significant reductions in their daily production capacities

The impact to these facilities is going to be felt long into the year, specifically by the immediate consuming industries such as chemical, plastics & rubber. More on this is available in our BI/CBI impacts infographic.

Supply chain and business interruption issues predicted across Louisiana

Supply chain and business interruption issues predicted across Louisiana 600 532 adapt ready

Press Release

For Immediate Release

New York, NY, USA. 31st August 2021.

On the 16th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina causing devastation to the state of New Orleans, Hurricane Ida made landfall. With windspeeds reaching 150mph the Cat 4 storm slammed into Louisiana as the fifth strongest hurricane ever to hit mainland U.S, reversing the flow of the Mississippi river and taking the roof off a hospital in the process.

When Katrina made landfall sixteen years ago on the 29th of August 2005 it was Cat 3 storm and caused massive disruption along the coast of Louisiana, one of the US’s most important industrial corridors, and highlighted the areas vulnerability to flooding. Ida, making landfall just 45 miles west of Katrina’s entry point, has only emphasized this further causing power outages for the entire city of New Orleans as confirmed by Entergy, the city’s power supplier. On top of this, storm surges reaching up to 12 feet (3.65 m) have been reported in the region causing damage and disruption to the energy sector.

Using Adapt Ready’s risk intelligence platform the impacts to business and industry can be seen already as well as the potential costly supply chain and business interruption issues yet to come.

Hurricane Ida has now been downgraded to a tropical storm, but the issues are only just beginning with initial predictions showing the most affected industries currently to be:

  • Chemicals
  • Energy (Offshore & Onshore)
  • Metal Products

Major companies like Westlake Chemicals and Occidental Petrochemicals have been shut down, and these are companies that were already battered by multiple challenges in the past year: declaration of force majeures on their key products like PVC after last year’s record-breaking hurricanes, and Occidental’s Texas facility declaring force majeure earlier this year during Texas’ severe winter storm. Shell’s chemical and refining operations at Narco, Louisiana were shut down during the winter storm and these facilities are again in Ida’s path.

The chemical sector is set to experience some of the biggest impacts to its supply chains, especially the Plastics & Rubber industry that relies on chemicals from the impacted regions, like polymeric MDI (for foams), polyethylene (for packaging materials), butadiene (for tires), PVC and chlorine.

Business interruption and supply chain issues are expected to follow after the initial damage caused by Ida. Our predictions show that in addition to Energy and Chemicals industries, we also foresee impact to the Plastics & Rubber industries, because of the sheer length of time it takes for refineries to get back to full production capacity. More details are available on our infographic below.

If you would like more information as to your specific portfolio requirements in the affected area or just want to be kept up to date with real time hurricane impacts this season, then please contact riskmonitor@adaptready.com.

About Adapt Ready:

Adapt Ready’s ground-breaking risk intelligence platform delivers new data insights and fills in key gaps with external data, enabling our customers to better manage operational and financial risks, and to enhance their growth and profitability. With our platform, organizations can gain insights from external data tailored to specific situations before, during and after a crisis:

  • Before: Plan for risks by uncovering as many hidden risks as possible
  • During: Mitigate the impact – as events unfold, new data emerges and can inform decisions to reduce the event’s impact
  • After: Adapt to new conditions and refine future business direction

Hurricane Ida: Impact Report

Hurricane Ida: Impact Report 1919 1587 adapt ready

Hurricane Zeta: Impact Report

Hurricane Zeta: Impact Report 1043 710 adapt ready

Hurricane Zeta, a Category 2 storm, made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana on Wednesday October 29th causing massive power outages across the Gulf Coast leaving 556,000 customers in Louisiana without power. As of this update, the storm is currently in Mississippi with max windspeeds of 176 km/h and storm surge levels up to 6ft, posing a major threat to the oil & gas assets, both offshore and onshore.

Zeta is a record 9th storm to hit the Gulf Coast this year: a devastating blow to a region already battered by Hurricane Laura (the fifth strongest hurricane on record in the US) in late August, Hurricane Sally (Category 3) in September and Hurricane Delta (Category 4) this month, causing extensive property damage and loss of life.

This continues the pattern of an increasing number of storms in the Atlantic season. In 2018 there were 15 named storms of which 8 became hurricanes and 2 were major events (Cat 3 and above). In 2019 there were 18 named storms, of which 6 became hurricanes and 3 were major events. This season we now have 27 named storms, a staggering 12 hurricanes and 4 major events making it the heaviest storm season for some time (the last time we had more than 12 hurricanes in the Atlantic season was back in 2005).

As the heart of energy production in the US it is no surprise to see the main companies and industries expected to be affected by the red zone (area with the highest predicted windspeeds) of Hurricane Zeta:

Top 5 companies operating and leasing platforms:

1. Fieldwood Energy with 123 active platforms
2. Cox Operating LLC with 113 active platforms
3. Talos LLC with 74 active platforms
4. Arena Offshore with 53 active platforms
5. W&T Offshore with 41 active platforms

Top 5 companies with offshore wells in the red zone:

1. Fieldwood Energy – 354
2. Cox Operating – 293
3. Arena Offshore LP – 183
4. GOM Shelf – 86
5. Cantium LLC – 78

With the energy sector again taking the biggest hit due to the location of predicted landfall, you might have seen in the last two reports, that both Cox and Fieldwood Energy are expected to be the most effected. This is because of the sheer number of wells and platforms they have in this region. As the two largest platform and well operators in the affected zones they will always feature heavily in such reports as Fieldwood Energy operates 23% and Cox Operating LLC 21% of all active platforms in the region.

Top 5 companies with Onshore Wells

  1. Hilcorp Energy Company – 202
  2. FDL Operating, LLC – 139
  3. Texas Petroleum Investment Co. – 122
  4. Denbury Onshore, LLC – 88
  5. S2 Energy Operating LLC – 85

Due to the nature of risk assessment and underwriting being driven by who the lease holders of properties are, it is important to address the current leaseholders of potentially affected assets.

CompanyLeases
Fieldwood49
W&T23
Talos22
Arena Energy21
EPL Oil & Gas12
Leaseholders predicted to be most at risk of damage

Manufacturing facilities in Ship Building, Fabricated Metal Products, Chemicals & Petrochemicals and Mining Support are in the regions of potential storm surge flooding of up to 4ft above the ground. These businesses could well be under threat from some physical damage, but we do not think there will be significant damage or losses to these and their connected industries.

If you would like more information as to your specific portfolio requirements in the affected area or just want to be kept up to date with real time hurricane impacts this season, then please contact riskmonitor@adaptready.com.

About Adapt Ready:

Adapt Ready’s ground-breaking risk intelligence platform delivers new data insights and fills in key gaps with external data, enabling our customers to better manage operational and financial risks, and to enhance their growth and profitability. With our platform, organizations can gain insights from external data tailored to specific situations before, during and after a crisis:

  • Before: Plan for risks by uncovering as many hidden risks as possible
  • During: Mitigate the impact – as events unfold, new data emerges and can inform decisions to reduce the event’s impact
  • After: Adapt to new conditions and refine future business direction

Hurricane Delta: Impact Report

Hurricane Delta: Impact Report 800 440 adapt ready

Hurricane Sally: Impact Report

Hurricane Sally: Impact Report 1785 1169 adapt ready

The new interactive infographic above allows Insurers and reinsurers to see their exposures as hurricane Sally’s predicted path evolved. Then, the actual path as Sally made landfall on the 16th September.

This infographic shows how as Louisiana was being predicted to face the brunt of the storm having the relevant data at the right time to assess the industries and companies allows insurers and reinsurers to prepare for reserving on their portfolios and risks where necessary.

By simply moving the slider in the infographic, you can see how each projected path could have impacted Louisiana’s wells and companies in real time up until hurricane Sally made landfall when the real impact became known (path 4)

This infographic is focused on the Louisiana area just to show the potential of this style of risk analysis; however, we are also covering the impact upon Alabama’s onshore wells and companies in Florida now that landfall has been made and initial data is showing the following:

Alabama

  • BASF
  • Coastal Oil & Gas Corporation
  • ExxonMobil Production Company
  • Goodrich Aerostructures
  • Guyoungtech USA, Inc. (a tier 1 supplier to Hyundai, Kia and other automotive companies)

Florida

  • Air Products & Chemicals
  • Exxon Mobil Chemical Company

If you would like more detailed info on the impact to your specific risk or portfolio, or would just like to know how often these wells or other companies have previously been damaged by major events specific to your risks then please get in touch with our representatives through the links at the bottom of the site.

Tracking Hurricane Sally

Tracking Hurricane Sally 719 557 adapt ready

Over 14 hours ago, Tropical Storm Sally turned into Hurricane Sally and changed its course as it made progress towards Louisiana. It is now expected to turn and make its way to the Mississippi-Alabama state line.

The hurricane is likely to further impact the battered oil & gas industry with over 170 offshore platforms and 1,000 offshore wells in the path of the hurricane. Over 500 manufacturing facilities in Mississippi could also bear the brunt of the hurricane and its predicted life-threatening storm surge.

The Chemicals manufacturing industry could see significant impact from Hurricane Sally.

The following is a small subset of the companies that could experience property damage and business interruption.

Offshore Wells
Fieldwood Energy368
Cantium LLC220
Cox Operating LLC92
Onshore Oil Wells
Texas Petroleum Investment Company100
Cox Operating LLC26
Lobo Operating Inc11
Onshore Gas Wells
Texas Petroleum Investment Company10
Lobo Operating Inc9
Fieldwood and Cox had the most exposure during Hurricane Laura as well.

Typhoons Haishen and Maysak: Impact on South Korea’s Export Industry

Typhoons Haishen and Maysak: Impact on South Korea’s Export Industry 800 2000 Diana Peterson

A double whammy of storms hit Japan and South Korea recently: Typhoons Maysak and Haishen made landfall within a day of each other.

As a result of these storms, South Korea faced a threat to its $110bn+ of semiconductor and automotive export industries according to the latest real-time information gathered by Adapt Ready’s Risk Intelligence Platform. Our initial newsletter tracked Haishen as making landfall as a Category 4-equivalent hurricane and the infographic was prepared with those paths; by the time it reached South Korea, it had been downgraded to Category 2 so the impacts to the identified companies may not be as severe. Nevertheless, the infographic also highlights the accumulation of risk among these industries.

The two main impacted industries are the $23.1bn Automotive parts exports and the more concerning $94bn semiconductor exports industry which currently ranks as South Korea’s largest export industry. Despite the updated path of Typhoon Haishen, they have impacted operational capacity on some of South Korea’s major corporations; and as per our analysis, the companies most exposed to losses right now are Samsung, Amkor, Hyundai, Ford and General Motors, by virtue of their heavy supply chain reliance on South Korea

In the attached infographic you can clearly see how Maysak’s path ran right through the heart of the semiconductor and auto industries in South Korea. Most insurers are able to know the property damage to direct sites of their customers but the impact on lines such as business interruption within the manufacturing sector is impossible to capture without the right tools to assess interconnected risks. They are unable to know or even estimate their BI/CBI exposure, which is paramount during these times. Some of the interesting insights from our risk intelligence platform include:

  • 472 semiconductor companies and 426 automotive final assembly/parts supplier companies were in Maysak’s high impact zone (min wind speeds ~90 Km/h and max wind speeds ~176 Km/h)
    • The same numbers increased to 653 semiconductor and 528 automotive companies when the focus is on high impact zones of cyclone Haishen.
  • Multiple common tier-1 suppliers were in the impact zones of both the cyclones, potentially leading to supply chain issues to bigger companies like Estra Automotive, General Motors, Hyundai, Samsung and Ford.
  • There could be a “double edged” impact to supply chains of raw materials and finished goods, both in automotive and semiconductor industries, causing large exposures.

If you would like more details as to impacts to your specific portfolio in that area or just want to be kept up to date with the real-time impact of the cyclones then please reach out using the details below.

Hurricane Laura: Impact on the Energy sector

Hurricane Laura: Impact on the Energy sector 500 516 adapt ready

The latest real time information is now available for tropical storm Laura, but can this come to the aid of the ailing energy market?

As storm Laura struck the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 4 storm after undergoing a massive intensification in strength in just 24 hours, the insurance industry, as always in these times, is inundated with predictions of losses and warnings from the likes of AM Best and Moody’s of added stress to the balance sheets of their rated insurance companies, already weakened by Covid-19.

With the availability of new technology and powerful analytics tools now though, there is a way for the industry to react with better, more informed decision making.

Let’s take the ever-suffering Energy market, which over the last few years has been hardening due to an increase in losses and a decrease in premiums, so the use of cutting-edge technology is already pivotal in reducing expense ratios – but can that technology help in real time?

Having the right information at the earliest possible time will massively help companies with their reserving, so what information can we gather right now from this data?

Port Arthur, Texas is home to the largest oil refinery in the US. Over 330 offshore drilling platforms are right in the path of Laura’s peak winds, but not all rigs and refineries are equal. Older platforms (pre-2006) generally have a lower profile and therefore more likely to be affected by the predicted storm swells of over 20 feet and understanding how many of these are in insurers’ portfolios is the first step of the analysis.

  • Currently there are 235 older (pre-2006) platforms in the storm affected area.
  • The platforms are owned or operated by a handful of companies that have large exposures, including Fieldwood Energy LLC, Cox Operating LLC and Arena Offshore LP.
  • It is also worth noting from the data that Fieldwood Energy alone owns or operates 238 fixed offshore platforms and thus has the largest exposure.

Modern, floating platforms are designed to be far more resilient to storm surges but any of the above fixed platforms caught in the storm would add more pressure to their owners.

Company Platform Count
Fieldwood Energy LLC238
Cox Operating, LLC102
Arena Offshore, LP39
Talos19
Sanare Energy Partners17
Top 5 Risk Exposures

These companies have properties at a greater risk of losses and knowing this allows insurers the opportunity for better reserving and the ability to do that faster also gives a greater understanding of potential losses.

One of the areas that Real time data can be truly beneficial in times like this is in the potential to have preventative action, which leads to faster processing of claims and not to mention identifying the business interruption impact.

Looking at the infographic we can also see the impact to downstream energy production.  With production already down 84% in the last two days this is going to put pressure on chemicals, machinery, plastics and rubber manufacturing who may have shortage issues.    

The last similar storm that hit this region was Hurricane Rita in 2005, which resulted in $6.4 billion in insured losses

A final point on how underwriting can modernize with this type of data. Traditionally, energy companies have insured their risk exposures on an individual basis, with reliance placed on historical losses to assess risk, usually by considering each class of insurance in isolation. 

Premium, market capacity, deductible and insurable limit are the main drivers, with only limited analytical support undertaken to assess placement outcome and pricing or the insurer’s overall portfolio.

This single view of risk doesn’t take into account the true nature of risk, which is far more complex and includes dependencies within and between risk exposures that can now be better understood by combining data with modern analytical capabilities. Is it not time that underwriting used this available data, gained a complete understanding of the interconnected risks in a portfolio and helped to reduce both exposures and costs in the long term over the traditional and more myopic system?

If any companies on this list are in your portfolio, then we have detailed information that may help and are more than happy to share it; so please do not hesitate to get in touch.

COVID-19 Impact on the Pharmaceuticals Industry

COVID-19 Impact on the Pharmaceuticals Industry 1200 800 adapt ready

Coronavirus Business Impacts

Coronavirus Business Impacts 1200 800 adapt ready

Coronavirus COVID-19 is on everyone’s mind. Here’s a sliver of the global impact it can cause, from the shut down of several operations in China, Hubei in particular