Uncategorized

September Risk Report

September Risk Report 300 168 Davis Cherry

Drought Exacerbates Tensions in Tunisia – A persistent drought is threatening agriculture, leading to protests over water and enhancing existing social tensions in Tunisia.

Companies Taking Water Risk Seriously – Forbes Magazine surveys private sector concerns about water scarcity and business strategies to reduce risk.

Global Climate Risk Threshold Passed – scientists say global CO2 levels surpassed 400 (parts per million) ppm in September. To keep global temperatures from rising 2°C, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that CO2 ppm levels should stay below 450 ppm.

China Suffers Large Losses from Typhoon – Insured losses on mainland China from September’s Typhoon Meranti are expected to fall between $650 million and $1.15 billion. The intensity and frequency of typhoons that make landfall across the East Asia region have been increasing.

Climate Implications for Risk Assessment and Insurance – Companies can now expect to see higher flood premiums, larger flood deductibles and stricter underwriting standards as new scientific evidence suggests climate has made flooding events from Louisiana to Paris more severe.

BlackRock Advances Climate Risk Assessment – Managing trillios in assets, BlackRock said all investors should factor climate risks into their decision-making and “doing so would not mean having to accept lower returns.”

Climate a Significant Security Risk Says Military – Military and national security experts recommend the federal government to create a cabinet-level official to manage climate and security issues.

Rising Seas Threaten Islands in South Pacific – Island nation of Kiribati, in the South Pacific, might be the first country to be entirely eliminated due to sea level rise in 30 to 50 years.

Mars Chocolate Hires Meteorologists to Forecast Risks – Worried about how extreme weather is impacting its supply chain, Mars has hired meteorologists to better understand climate risks, from disruptive storms to changing growing conditions, for its chocolate supply.

New York City Brings Global Awareness to Climate Threats While Facing Its Own Critical Challenges

New York City Brings Global Awareness to Climate Threats While Facing Its Own Critical Challenges 660 371 Davis Cherry

New York City just hosted Climate Week NYC 2016 to coincide with the United Nations General Assembly September 19 – 25. City governments, business leaders, NGOs and government representatives convened to discuss issues from sustainable land use in agriculture to strategies to reduce urban vulnerability. As records continue to be set for global temperatures and extreme events, organizers and participants directed significant attention to the need to better understand risks arising from global change and take action to save lives and protect assets.

While annually shining a light on this global crisis, New York City faces its own daunting perils. Sea level rise poses an almost existential threat to the city—a few weeks before Climate Week, New York Magazine released “This is New York in the not-so-distant future,” one of the most thorough pieces on the challenges threatening the city this century. As today’s hundred-year floods may become five times more likely in the next few decades, significant destruction of coastal properties, infrastructure and business activity will become an every-decade or once-in-a-generation occurrence. And, the re insurer Swiss Re has already predicted that its “anticipated annual losses in New York will more than double by 2050, to $4.4 billion, and the cost of black-swan events that happen on average around once every 70 years will more than quadruple, to $90 billion.”

This has significant implications for real-estate, business investment and the future economic growth of the city.

For all cities, not just New York, careful cost-benefit-analyses must now be made factoring in climate risks, particularly for long-term investments. Will a 50-year lifespan project be investment-worthy if it will be rendered unusable from flooding in 40 years or should developers ignore climate risks if it can make a return in a shorter term, say 10-20 years? Or, should a project or building design be altered and enhanced to withstand change? For individuals and businesses, they must decide if buying a property along the coast or flood-prone area will be responsible and safe decisions.

Beyond the very long-term, understanding how risks are changing, even if small, in the next few years can help decision-makers better prepare for disruption and catastrophes with the resources and assets already in place.

Adapt Ready’s analytics give better perspective to these tough decisions by providing risk information over multiple time frames, useful for short- and long-term decision making for a variety of stakeholders. While New York’s fate is of major significance to the world, other cities and communities face similar or worse risks. In the spirit of Climate Week, it is important to shine a spotlight on many other cities’ risks—with our global coverage, Adapt Ready technology can enhance decision-makers’ ability to manage risk at any location.